Tuesday, April 2, 2013

OnLine Bits & Bytes Column: Internet's high-speed network replaced ...


by Mark Ollig

A final report by American Packets Regulating Internet Latency 1 (APRIL 1) has convinced the US government to modify how its citizens access the Internet.

The report is grim.

The use of the Internet over high-speed, and ultra-fast broadband networks using fiber optics, coaxial, satellites, microwaves, mobile cellular, and even Wi-Fi, is causing critical data packet fragmentation. This is resulting in the loss of the Internet?s binary 1 and 0 bits inside the encoding structure. The binary data?s individual blocks are unable to reach their destinations due to unforeseen latency, resulting in cases of router corruption. The datagrams simply cannot keep up with the torrent bit streams,? said the report.

?The early 1970s designed Internet Protocols (TCP/IP) software for managing the flow of binary 1s and 0s communicating on a computer over the Internet, is slowly deteriorating as it travels through today?s ultra-fast broadband networks ? the binary code just can?t keep up the pace,? said Dr. Paul ?Pulse? Codemodulation.

The loss of 1s and 0s occurring in the Internet bit stream has been confirmed by Ima ?Binary? C. Reader, who monitors the flow of data bits sent over the Internet from an undisclosed location in Las Vegas.

Speaking before the House Subcommittee on Responsible Binary Use last Friday, Citizens for Accountable Internet Speeds said, ?We are leading the charge to get America back to sensible, safer, and consistently slower Internet speeds by reducing the time binary code travels over the network.?

This columnist feels one way to save and recycle lost binary data bits, is by catching them in specially designed software bit buckets, as they drop off from the network.

Experts in modemology have spoken out and agree after reviewing various algorithmic simulations the only sensible, logical course is to proceed immediately with a nation-wide conversion of using no faster than 1,200 bps (bits-per-second) modems.

?If we go faster than 1,200 bps, we risk losing binary 1s and 0s. This we cannot allow to happen. However, in time, it is believed using 9,600 bps modems, with proper hardware buffering and echo-cancellation will be allowed,? stated Professor Hex A. Decimal, who holds a doctorate in binary and base 16 studies. He teaches at the Bits and Bytes research center, headquartered in Minnesota.

Not everyone is happy with the change.

?This is an Internet conspiracy! Everyone knows 1,200 bps is actually 300 baud. How can I watch YouTube videos through a 300 baud modem on my new iMac?? exclaimed ?mile Baudot, as he sipped his latt? at a local coffee house.

?One thousand two hundred bps ought to be enough for anyone!? scoffed Bill Gatesly, owner of MicroSoftly Modems Inc.

US government officials have announced full Internet network conversion to dial-up modem lines beginning in cities using the greatest number of 1s and 0s in their high-speed data streams.

Anonymous reports say a government program; similar to the one used when digital to analog TV converter boxes were supplied to citizens, will begin soon.

Homes? and businesses? high-speed Internet termination boxes will need to be replaced with new, US government-approved 1,200 bps analog modems, manufactured exclusively by MicroSoftly Modems Inc.

All fiber optical cables used for the Internet will be removed and recycled. New copper cable facilities will be installed as needed.

An Internet user will be required to connect their new analog modem to the copper cable line before plugging in a standard 4-conductor modular line cord from the modem to an RJ11C/USB converter stick on their computer.

Makers of all mobile Internet access devices, smart phones, and computing tablets have agreed to replace their internal Wi-Fi and cellular digital packet data chipsets, with new analog 1,200 bps ?mini-modems? provided by MicroSoftly Modems Inc.

Many Internet video watchers argue the new, slower data speeds will essentially prohibit streaming video and television from being broadcast over the Internet.

?Why use the Internet for TV or movie viewing? We should return to transmitting reliable, analog over-the-air signals to analog-receiving- only television sets for receiving these broadcasts,? asserted a spokesperson from the Philo Farnsworth TV Preservation Society.

Concern is not just with video being broadcast over the Internet.

?The US must remove Internet digital audio broadcasting from these overly-fast, bit-robbing, high-speed networks. It?s time to return to the basics with over-the-air amplitude modulation. Let?s go back to using analog crystal radio sets, instead of energy-wasting integrated circuit components. Also, crystal radios have no need for a battery or other power source,? read a statement from the local chapter of the Cat?s Whisker Receiver Rebels.

Others feel we should reverse course, and scrap analog modems and the Internet altogether by rebuilding the original US telegraph network, and connect it to every city from coast to coast.

?Hey, the telegraph system uses those fancy coded signals too!? exclaimed one enthusiastic telegraph supporter.

Breaking News:

Sources have informed this columnist that US officials misread the APRIL 1 report, and now have no plans to ?reverse course? and replace broadband networks, or any other high-speed technology used to access the Internet.

So, loyal readers, we will not need to revert back to dial-up modems connected to analog phone lines as we once did when accessing CompuServe, Prodigy, AOL, or hobby computer bulletin board systems.

I hope you enjoyed reading this April Fools? Day column written especially for you.

Source: http://bitscolumn.blogspot.com/2013/04/internets-high-speed-network-replaced.html

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Nigeria stocks rise to 1-month high on Dangote Cement

LAGOS (Reuters) - Nigerian stocks rose to their highest level in more than a month on Tuesday, buoyed by gains in its biggest listed firm Dangote Cement, traders said, on expectations of strong earnings, when the company announces full-year results this week.

The index rose almost 3 percent on volatile trades at 1319 GMT to 34,404 points, its highest since February 27.

Dangote Cement, which accounts for a third of market capitalisation on the bourse, climbed 4.38 percent to 155 naira, to lift the index. Other top gainers include Oando, Total, and Lafarge Nigerian unit WAPCO all up more than 5 percent.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/nigeria-stocks-rise-1-month-high-dangote-cement-135001318--finance.html

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Lion kills heron: A stork reminder of big cats' wild nature

Lion kills heron: A video of four lions setting upon a blue heron at a Dutch zoo serves as a reminder of the King of the Jungle's wild instincts.

By Mai Ng?c Ch?u,?Contributor / March 28, 2013

A group of four lions, like the one pictured at left, and a heron, like the one at right, had an encounter at an Amsterdam zoo that did not turn out well for the heron.

Lion: Tsvangirayi Mukwazhi/AP/File; Heron: Robert Harbison / The Christian Science Monitor

Enlarge

A video of four lions preying upon a heron at a Dutch zoo, shot last year and reposted on YouTube Wednesday, reminds us that you can take the lion out of the wild, but you can't take the wild out of the lion.?

Skip to next paragraph

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'; } else if (google_ads.length > 1) { ad_unit += ''; } } document.getElementById("ad_unit").innerHTML += ad_unit; google_adnum += google_ads.length; return; } var google_adnum = 0; google_ad_client = "pub-6743622525202572"; google_ad_output = 'js'; google_max_num_ads = '1'; google_feedback = "on"; google_ad_type = "text"; google_adtest = "on"; google_image_size = '230x105'; google_skip = '0'; // --> This Dutch family was visiting the zoo on a quiet Sunday afternoon when things got a bit more exciting than seeing bored animals lying around their enclosures. A lion spots a heron near the water. Following her instincts she sneaks up on it and manages to grab it. The whole family wants in on the prize, but a sneaky cub gets away with it.

In the video, a blue heron?at the Artis Royal Zoo wandered into a small pool while a group of four lions were basking in the sun, about 25 yards away. ?

As the the bird came into view of a lioness, instinct kicked in.?The lioness darted toward the bird, which desperately attempted to take flight but was pulled from the air with a leaping snatch.?The rest of her pride joined in to finish off the heron. ?

The footage of the killing has drawn thousands of views, because it's not often to see animals prey on one another at zoos. Experts said that, though the kings of the jungle are kept in captivity, cared and fed by humans, their original wildness remains untamed.?

Earlier this month, an African lion broke out of its pen and killed a 24-year-old intern at the Cat Haven sanctuary in California who was cleaning the main enclosure. According to CNN, the?5-year-old, 350-pound?killer was one of the victim's favorites.

Captive lions tend to act on their wild instincts whenever potential prey catches their eyes. A pair of videos titled "lion tries to eat baby" have attracted in total more than 7.6 millions views on YouTube since they were uploaded last April. The clips show an Oregon Zoo lioness snarling and baring her fangs in vain at a happily oblivious toddler protected by reinforced glass.

"Most of the time they seem relaxed and cuddly?so it's easy to forget that they react to meat with the reflexive instincts of a shark." Professor Craig Packer, a leading big cat expert at the University of Minnesota, noted in a recent interview with National Geographic News.?"Ten years ago Roy Horne (of Siegfried ?and Roy) was attacked by a tiger that they had handled for years?these attacks happen when people forget about the shark inside."

Early this month, The Monitor's Gloria Goodale interviewed Zara McDonald, executive director of the Bay Area Felidae?Conservation Fund?regarding the death of the Seattle woman.?

?Cats are predators,? said McDonald.?"I don?t care how tame anyone thinks one might be, they are always a wild animal with the ability to hurt humans.?

Source: http://rss.csmonitor.com/~r/feeds/science/~3/Xjz_5a1RHBo/Lion-kills-heron-A-stork-reminder-of-big-cats-wild-nature

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Monday, April 1, 2013

After "Tan Mom," New Jersey bans children from tanning beds

By David Jones

NEWARK, New Jersey (Reuters) - New Jersey Governor Chris Christie signed a bill into law on Monday banning children under 17 from using commercial tanning beds, a move stemming from the case of a local woman accused of taking her 5-year-old daughter into a tanning booth.

Christie said that while he does not favor government regulation of small business, the new law was important for protecting the safety of minors.

"Governmental regulation of the private sector should always be carefully scrutinized, and sparingly adopted," he said in a statement. "The new restrictions imposed by this bill followed a single but breathlessly reported incident of a parent bringing a minor child into a tanning facility."

Patricia Krentcil of Nutley, New Jersey, was arrested in April 2012 after her daughter showed up at school with a sunburn and officials accused her of taking the child into a tanning booth.

Krentcil, who became known in tabloid stories as the "Tan Mom," testified that her own chocolate-brown hue came from many hours spent under the intense ultraviolet light of a tanning bed or out in the sun soaking up rays.

She denied exposing her daughter to a tanning session, and a grand jury opted not to indict her on charges of endangering the welfare of a child.

New Jersey was already one of several states that have regulations prohibiting anyone age 14 or younger from tanning with commercial ultraviolet devices because of the risk of skin cancer. The new law extends that ban to older teenagers.

Signing the bill into law, Christie noted the skin cancer risk and also that tanning before age 35 has been shown to increase the risk for melanoma by 75 percent.

Under the new law, youth age 17 and older must have a parent or guardian present for an initial consultation with a tanning salon. It also bans children under 14 from getting spray tans in tanning salons.

(Editing by Ellen Wulfhorst, Cynthia Johnston and Mohammad Zargham)

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/tan-mom-jersey-bans-children-tanning-beds-015624374.html

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Are physicians more afraid of death than the general population?

The cavernous hospital amphitheater in Tel Aviv, normally used to screen videos and new surgical procedures, was illuminated only by tea candles floating in decorative dishes of water on a recent Wednesday in January. Hundreds of doctors, nurses and other medical personnel filled the seats, as usual. But we had not come to learn the latest life-saving technique.

Dr. Ofira Ben-Tal, one of Israel?s leading hematologists, had lost her battle with aggressive bladder cancer at the young age of 57. Few physicians were able to attend the funeral, ostensibly due to time constraints, so the hospital elected to accommodate us doctors who wanted to acknowledge the loss of a dear teammate. And the eulogies went beyond her rare braiding of meticulous professionalism with artsy elegance. Ofira was unique in her approach to her illness. Throughout the ending of her life, she sought opportunities to reflect on her disease, to clarify what she valued in life, and to encourage others not to fear what she referred to as ?the journey? of dying. By contrast, most of her peers?doctors like me?tend to be reluctant to speak about death and, particularly, to ponder our own demise.

Almost four years ago, I reported in The Oncologist that my colleagues in Israel rarely participate in bereavement rituals when informed that a patient has died. Approximately two-thirds of the 126 doctors I surveyed said they simply do not have the time to attend funerals or visit mourners during the shivah (a seven-day Jewish ritual where condolences can be expressed). But half also reported that they construed a patient?s death as a failure or acknowledged a need to desensitize themselves against the burnout.

?Palliative care? focuses on relieving patients of their suffering. Dr. Balfour Mount, a McGill University urologist credited with coining the term, has argued that healthcare providers are, themselves, so fearful of death that their trepidation compromises their ability to care for the terminally ill and even makes them uncomfortable at being around dying patients. If Mount is correct, then we have reached a dire state that screams for immediate repair.

The published evidence suggesting that physicians are more afraid of death than the general population is, at best, sketchy. But by the same token, there is no evidence to suggest that physician are less fearful of death than the general population, which in itself may be a problem since the general population is likely to cross paths with physicians when death is at hand. However, as better, statistically validated tools have emerged to measure our fears we are left with conflicting information regarding the physician?s degree of death anxiety. We are not sure where we stand.

When patients come to me to discuss their cancer, the conversation invariably tilts to ?what ifs? and worst-case scenarios of unsuccessful treatment.?At those moments, most patients expect us experts to serve as anchor.? When a team of Harvard researchers led by Dr. Jennifer Mack reported in last year?s Annals of Internal Medicine that only 30% of oncologists conduct end-of-life conversations with their cancer patients?and even then, only during the final month of the patient?s life?we have a glaring societal hazard.

In medical journals, discussion of the death of a physician generally takes two forms: tabulations of surveys of various groups of physicians and ?confessional reporting? by physicians revealing their emotional responses to terminal diagnosis or even misdiagnosis. ?In 1986, investigators from the National University of Singapore developed a questionnaire to survey 102 general practitioners on their attitudes about their own death. More than 70% said they would prefer to die at home.? One perhaps startling conclusion is that most physicians were disappointed with their peers? ways of practicing ?end-of-life medicine.? In particular, more than 85% expressed dissatisfaction with terminal-care pain control as well as emotional, spiritual, and other types of support.? The authors do caution that strong Chinese cultural influence on participants may render their findings less applicable to Western physicians. And use of hospice services in the intervening 25 years has increased significantly, so the picture today could also differ.

Meanwhile, a 1999 study based on the responses of more than 600 US-based physicians?both specialists and generalists from private practice and academic medical centers?appeared in the journal, Resuscitation.?The overwhelming majority of those physicians did not want cardio-pulmonary resuscitation (CPR) performed in the context of incurable illness, including Alzheimer?s disease, quadriplegia, metastasized cancers, and end-stage damage to the heart, lung, liver, or kidney. The doctors agreed that they wanted CPR only if they were otherwise in good health.

A larger survey of 818 physicians, last updated in 2008, queries doctors who graduated from the Johns Hopkins University Medical School between 1946 and 1964.? The study benefits from long-term stability because its participants agreed to be questioned at regular, three-year intervals.?Nearly 60% said they had executed a ?living will? and/or established durable power of attorney for health care, a DPAHC.? The doctors with a living will or DPAHC were more likely to refuse life-sustaining interventions, but also more likely to accept potent medications for alleviating pain.? The Hopkins study may not apply to all physicians, but results do seem to say that, for themselves at least, physicians would use advanced directives as a means of limiting the provision of life-sustaining treatments rather than as a tool to enable life-sustaining treatments to be provided.

Less empirical but no less compelling are the narrative essays penned by doctors in the process of confronting their own death.? Many physicians joke about a dying doctor?s greatest fear: ?How could others possibly recover from such a loss??? In truth, however, most of these physicians write about their own death with sensitivity and insight rather than narcissism or humor.

I am not the first to point out that physicians have distinctive ways of contending with mortality. In an article posted on the website Zocalo Public Square in 2011, Dr. Ken Murray?a California family physician?shared some observations and anecdotes about the modes of death chosen by medical doctors whom he knew. The article garnered a surprising amount of attention, evidenced by its citation in mainstream media outlets including the New York Times, the Wall Street Journal, and National Public Radio. It went viral on social media. Why all the commotion?

No doubt because Dr. Murray had the temerity to suggest that, rather than pursuing heroic measures for themselves, physicians who are dying consistently opt for less treatment. He writes, ?? they know exactly what is going to happen, they know the choices, and they generally have access to any sort of medical care they would want, but they go gently.?

In the Canadian Medical Association Journal, internist Dr. Mark Cheung recalls the debilitating pneumonia that he contracted at a time when he was caring for patients during Toronto?s SARS epidemic. ?I was forced to confront the possibility of SARS as a cause of my fever,? he recounted. ?I reflected on the disease itself, a novel virus whose treatment was based on opinion rather than evidence. I struggled with the thoughts of parting from my wife and not being able to watch our wonderful children grow.? The infection in his lungs turned out to be treatable, and he was discharged after three weeks.

In a phone interview, Cheung told me that the prospect of fatal illness helped crystallize his personal values. He developed a heightened appreciation of family, greater sensitivity to his patients?especially those suffering from shortness of breath or diagnosed with a terminal condition. He made a commitment to healthy lifestyle changes?he now exercises five days a week in a gym?and even developed a willingness to be less frugal. ?Near-death,? he said, ?is a game changer.?

Doctors face death in different ways. Dr. William Shimp, a semi-retired oncologist, feared that he was dying of cancer until the ?ratty-looking? lesion in his pancreas was unmasked as a benign cyst.? He wrote about his experience in an article entitled, ?Oncologist as Patient?Or Not.? ?Shimp told me that he couldn?t help but alter his life focus following his ordeal on the examining table. Shimp re-ordered priorities and contemplated his personal legacy while, on a professional level, he redoubled his devotion to his patients, resolving, for example, never to make them wait for test results and to interpret results for his patients rather than simply passing on laboratory values or x-ray reports.

Of the 20-or-so dying physicians whom he?d taken care of during his career, Shimp said some dying physicians had experienced shame or remorse. Could they, the ?all-knowing,? have been diagnosed with malignancy because they had not adhered to screening recommendations or practiced denial when early warning signs appeared? Others, also not represented in the published studies, had harbored a sense of entitlement and insisted that all heroic measures?even when apparently futile?be pursued.? The latter group ?had an ugliness about them,? Shimp said, ?which was often manifest as a seething anger.? They could be argumentative at times, he reported, and were likely to be patients who wanted to die in the hospital environment, ?fighting until the very end.?

What can we do to improve our situation?? We can do more to determine contemporary physician opinions on heroic measures, pain control, and euthanasia.? And if 70% of physicians are still intent on dying at home, we can try to find out more accurately: Is it because doctors understandably prefer to be surrounded by family in comforting settings? Or is it because doctors know enough to want to distance themselves from colleagues who don?t grasp how to care for dying patients?? We could identify physicians who are imminently dying and create a database to document their outlook. That would be useful because conclusions would no longer be hypothetical. We must do more to learn about the respective overlaps and divergences in attitude between physicians and patients on the final, and most mysterious, phase of the human experience.

And we can go beyond statistics. Rather than confine ourselves to quantitative investigations, we can work with quality. What is the fabric of physician death anxiety? Shame? Remorse?? Inbred fear? Something else?

Dr. Irvin Yalom, professor emeritus of psychiatry at Stanford University, has been called the Father of Existential Therapy. He points out that, because lives perceived as unfulfilled tend to engender regret, to face our ?death terror? requires us to work at understanding ourselves and the values that drive us.

None of the major professional organizations?the American College of Physicians or the American Medical Association, for example?are well equipped to assist doctors to, as Yalom puts it, ?to do the work.? This is particularly surprising in an era where ?guidelines? and ?checklists? are available to provide direction on most professional matters.? If we aspire to become effective escorts to the patients whom we are privileged to shepherd in our medical ministries, then we might consider revising Luke?s well-known proverb to read: ?Physician, emotionally heal thyself.?

My dissonance sent me questing for authentic role models who engage in the kind of soul-searching to which Yalom alludes.? And of course, Ofira Ben-Tal returned to mind.

Exactly one week before she died, I took the elevator to the oncology ward and entered Ofira?s room. She had just vomited and wore a morphine haze on her face. Both of us knew the reason for my visit and recognized that this was not the moment to say goodbye. With obvious effort, she raised her right index finger and looped it around the air in small, clockwise circles, signaling that it would be best for me to return at another time.

The following day, late in the afternoon when my rounds were complete, I stopped by again. Her skin had shed its cold, damp appearance. She was able to quip, ?I wasn?t sure a technocratic radiation oncologist like you would have enough emotional intelligence to read my body language yesterday. How reassuring!? After allowing ample time for her sarcasm to seep in, she beckoned me to the bay window that faced west toward the Mediterranean Sea.

She appeared overwhelmed with appreciation for our final moments together and seemed to have some message to share. ?Do you have an awareness of the setting sun, Ben? Do you appreciate the variety of tones and hues that mesh together in perfection at these moments??? Speechless, I nodded, trying to convey my intent to dedicate this time of each day to the lesson that she was trying to give to me as a parting gift.? It was delightful to listen to Ofira.? She was vibrant.? No regret.? She still had more to contribute.? She chose to arrange our encounter to put me at ease and to bequeath a simple, spiritual keepsake for me to cherish.

Professor Yalom?s book about overcoming the dread of death is called Staring at the Sun. He chose its title, he explains, based on a quote from Francois de La Rochefoucauld, who stated, ?You cannot stare directly at the sun, or death.? In the book, as throughout his writing, Yalom defiantly advocates that we stand and face our mortality.

In Ofira?s hospital room, the two of us were staring at not merely the sun; we were staring at the setting sun. The metaphor could not be more apt.

Benjamin Corn is Professor of Oncology at Tel Aviv University School of Medicine, Adjunct Professor of Radiation Oncology at Jefferson Medical College and co-founder of the organization, Life?s Door. This article originally appeared in Quartz.

Source: http://www.kevinmd.com/blog/2013/04/physicians-afraid-death-general-population.html

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Feedly updated with new sharing options and sections, announces three million new users

Feedly updated with new sharing options and sections, announces three million new users

Feedly has been update with a number of additions and enhancements, including better search and more sharing options, along with announcing three million new users. Users can now set their favorite sharing services, choosing from Google+, Buffer, Facebook, Twitter, email, or your browser. The same can also be done with article saving options, which let you designate your favorite of those between Feedly itself, Instapaper, or Pocket. Additionally, the sharing panel has been redesigned to make sharing and saving items faster.

The new search features smart topic completion, using what other Feedly users have found in order to provide quick discovery of the most popular feeds. Feedly has also added a section called ?Must Read?, where you can mark your favorite news sources as important, giving their stories priority over those from other feeds in your ?Today? section. Finally, there is now pull to refresh in the feed list.

Feedly has also announced that they have added three million new users since Google announced the shutdown of Reader. While Feedly currently uses Google Reader, they have previously announced that they will be transitioning to a new system between now and July 1, when Reader shuts down.

If you?re a Feedly user, this is a solid update with great new features. If you?re not sure about Feedly, check out Allyson Kazmucha?s review and see if it sounds like something you?ll enjoy.

Source: Feedly blog



Source: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TheIphoneBlog/~3/vMK087uJB3g/story01.htm

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Following The Smart Money In Asia | Zero Hedge

Follow the money. It's a old saying in investing that's never made a lot of sense as it often means following the latest fad and ultimately buying high and?selling low.?So I'm going to?propose an amendment and urge you to?"follow the?smart?money".?By this?I mean that you should study what businessmen and investors with long, successful track records are doing with their money. And possibly invest alongside of them. Unlike most investors who feel they have to chase returns to get rich, these people are already wealthy and can pick and choose which asset classes to invest in. Given this freedom, they are often attracted to assets which offer value relative to other assets. It pays to know what these people are buying and selling.

Which brings me to an important development in Asia this year. It's become clear that many real estate investors in Hong Kong and Singapore are cashing out of property. These?investors are?among?Asia's wealthiest and they're starting to exit their favourite asset.?If this implies that?property in Hong Kong and Singapore is close to?peaking, as I suspect it does, then it has negative implications for the economies and stock markets?of both cities. On a longer time horizon though,?a?re-balancing away from property as the primary driver of wealth generation?could well prove beneficial.

Investors selling property assets

I've been hearing a lot of anecdotes about insiders selling out of real estate, especially in Hong Kong. So an article in The Wall Street Journal this week entitled "Big players cash out of Hong Kong property" naturally caught my eye.

The article points to a wave of property initial public offerings (IPOs) about to hit the market. The sellers include New World Development, a large conglomerate, which is hoping to raise US$1 billion in an offering of some of its hotels. Another big Hong Kong conglomerate, Hopewell Holdings, wants to raise up to US$800 million in an offering of some of its (unspecified) properties. Also, Great Eagle Holdings, owner of The Langham Hotel chain,?is hoping to?raise US$800 million from selling off hotels in Hong Kong.

It comes after Hong Kong residential property prices increased?120% over the past four years, while commercial property prices rose?90% during the same period. It also?follows the Hong Kong government introducing more draconian measures to limit property price rises. In February, the government increased stamp duty on residential property purchases by?2x to up to 8.5%.

Hong Kong isn't?alone in?witnessing an increasing number of real estate IPOs. Singapore has seen a similar pattern this year. There's more to come as Indonesian billionaires, the Riady family, is planning to raise US$800 million in an IPO of its Singapore hotels.

Similar to?Hong Kong, Singapore has struggled to bring property prices under control. Recently,?the government there introduced its seventh measure - including increased stamp duty and higher down payment requirements - in the past two years to curb price rises. Residential housing prices in Singapore have started to stabilise but they're still up 59% since bottoming in the second quarter of 2009.

Reasons for cashing out

It's not difficult to understand the motives behind the real estate investors who?are selling. The property bubbles in Hong Kong and Singapore have been fuelled by three factors:

  1. Money printed in the West has found a home in tangible growth assets in Asia. This has been particularly the case for Hong Kong, which pegs its currency to the U.S. dollar. This has resulted in Hong Kong money market rates closely tracking those of the U.S. even when domestic conditions diverge.?This has meant?significantly negative real rates (interest rates well below?inflation), often a?central driver to?property bubbles.
  2. Chinese growth has also aided the bubble. Chinese investors wanting to diversify their assets outside of?China have found their way to Hong Kong, Singapore and, of course, many other places.?
  3. Governments, principally in Hong Kong, have been timid in addressing the price rises. Increasing social tensions, brought on by asset bubbles primarily benefiting the rich,?have forced them to?act more decisively.

The savvy real estate investors now cashing out know that the tailwinds which have driven property prices to their recent highs could easily turn in future. It's clear that governments in Hong Kong and Singapore are becoming more concerned with property price rises and are willing to act to curb them. Also, quantitative easing (QE) won't last forever. When?QE goes,?a key driving factor behind Asia's property bubble will disappear.?Finally, Chinese economic growth of +8% can't be counted on from?here on. Regular readers will know my bearish views on China's economy in the near-term. The wealth investors exiting property may?share the same concerns.

More?importantly, these investors?most probably realise that better value can be found elsewhere.?All segments of property in Hong Kong and Singapore are undoubtedly expensive. The Economist?magazine suggests they are the world's second and third most expensive residential property markets on a price-to-rent basis, 69% and 57% overvalued versus long-term averages respectively.?

The economist house-price indicators

In?Hong Kong, the average residential property rental yield is close to 3%. Effectively, you're paying?a 33x price-to-earnings ratio for Hong Kong?property. That compares to the 11x that you'll pay?for the average Hong Kong stock.

Hong kong rental yields

The investors exiting local property would also be able to see the much better rental yields offered outside of Asia,?in the likes of the U.S.. There, they can get yields of?+6% in a less frothy market and?where debt is still very cheap.?

Where they'll put their money

The obvious question is: where will the real estate investors put their excess cash? The obvious answer is that they may switch from expensive property segments into less expensive ones in their home countries. Thus in Hong Kong, residential property appears among the more expensive. A switch into commercial property may make sense, particularly as upcoming supply is relatively limited. This switch is what property experts such as Colliers are betting on. This theory has some credibility. After all, property investors know property and switching between different segments would be within their comfort zones.

But I think any switch would be limited. As mentioned earlier, much of the selling by real estate insiders is in commercial property. They're clearly not bullish on this segment either. Moreover, they'd know that if property rolls over on the residential side, it would impact the economy. Particularly in Hong Kong, where property contributes about 18% to GDP. Commercial property is very sensitive to economic conditions and would suffer if this scenario took place.

Another potential place to park the cash raised by real estate sales is?in the stock market. Morgan Stanley strategist, Jonathan Garner, has taken a slightly different angle to raise the possibility of the Hang Seng Index (Hong Kong's main stock index) reaching 50,000 by 2015 (it's currently 22,300). Garner suggests that the Hang Seng Index has significantly lagged Hong Kong residential property prices, when historically they've been closely correlated (unsurprising?given the importance of property to Hong Kong's economy). He argues the stock market is due to play catch up.

HK property vs HSI

My problem with this argument is that stocks may not play catch up, but property prices could fall instead. This would, inturn,?heavily impact the stock market.

It depends on what you believe is more likely: a rise in stocks or a fall in property prices. My bet is on the latter and given the recent sales by real estate investors, they may well be in the same camp.

If not stocks or other property segments within their home countries, then where will the real estate investors put their money? I think overseas property markets are a fair bet.

My wife, who manages a portfolio?of hotel assets?for one of Australia's largest property developers, tells?me?that Singapore companies?have been large?investors in Australia of late.?Frasers Centrepoint is involved in building a massive US$2.1 billion mixed?use development near the main train station in Sydney's central business district. Recently, Ascendas?Group?bought a?US$572 million hotel fund?managed by Australia's Mirvac Group. Far East Orchard is forming JVs?to development its hotel business in Australia. And K-Reit has partnered with Mirvac in two office developments to date.

It's clear form this that the trend of?Asian?real estate investors looking overseas for better opportunities has already begun. Australia is attractive to some given the low cost of debt and decent yield on offer. I would expect the U.S. and other less bubbly markets than Australia to attract more attention from investors in future.

What if property's best days are behind it?

There's a larger question that probably hasn't been considered as much by the wealthy?Asian?property investors. And that is whether property in Hong Kong and Singapore may be close to?topping out not just for?a few years, but for a decade or more? Given the overvaluation of property in these markets, this possibility can't be ruled out.

The reason that I raise this is because it would have far-reaching consequences. Asians are known to have an abiding love for property. Many suggest that it's because property is tangible, unlike money that you put in the bank or into the stock market. I think that like the western world prior to 2008, property has realised incredible gains for investors in Hong Kong and Singapore over the past 40 years. And that's what they've fallen in love with.?

Consider that two-thirds of Hong Kong's 50 wealthiest people have made their money primarily in real estate. It's an extraordinary statistic.

No asset goes up forever though and property tends to move in very long cycles. What if we are close to the start of a major long-term downturn? (a downturn doesn't have to mean declining prices as even stable prices will result?large losses in inflation-adjusted terms). What if property isn't the key driver to wealth in the likes of Hong Kong anymore? And what if the two-thirds of Hong Kong's 50 wealthiest people from a real estate background, becomes one-third in ten year's time?

Many people in Hong Kong and Singapore could never imagine some of these things happening. But I'd suggest they're inevitable at some stage. It's a matter of when, not if.

Such an occurrence would have some significant silver linings though. There's little doubt that a declining or flat property market for a long period of time would have a significant impact on the economies of Hong Kong and Singapore. But I'd argue that it would be a healthy adjustment that may better balance their economies over time. Being over-reliant on one sector is never healthy.

Property's downfall may also prove beneficial to other asset classes, such?stocks and bonds. Knight Frank estimates that Asia's wealthiest have 31% of their net worth tied up in property, compared to 16% in Europe, for instance. And they only have 15% of their wealth in stocks. A long-term shift towards?stocks may make more sense, particularly when the economies of their home countries become less dependent on property asset appreciation.

Finally, less wealth coming from property would mean more wealth coming from other sectors. The wealthiest citizens may come more from manufacturing or other service industries. They're likely to be?less attracted to buying?property than the current batch of real estate investors. That could prove a boon for stocks and the still under-developed Asian bond markets.

This post was originally published at Asia Confidential: http://asiaconf.com

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Source: http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-03-29/following-smart-money-asia

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